A partir de 2011, los precios del petróleo se han negociado en una banda estrecha de alrededor de 100 por barril, a pesar de una serie de interrupciones que en otra época sería Han provocado picos de precios significativos. En Libia, los rebeldes se apoderaron del gobierno del quinto mayor titular de reservas de petróleo probadas en el mundo. Un levantamiento anti-gobierno en Siria cerró más de un veinte de la producción mundial de petróleo. Sudán del Sur perdió un tercio de su producción de petróleo a la lucha que dañó sus pozos de petróleo. Los mercados de materias primas se están encogiendo repetidamente de los shocks por una simple razón: El mundo está sobreabastecido con todo, desde petróleo crudo hasta carbón y gas natural, en todas partes desde Estados Unidos hasta China y Siberia. Pero sería un error confundirse con una falsa sensación de seguridad. Detrás de este exceso benigno, el entorno comercial de los productos básicos está cambiando radicalmente, introduciendo nuevos retos y oportunidades para los comerciantes, las empresas industriales y los consumidores en todo el mundo. En nuestra opinión, estas nuevas tendencias podrían provocar disrupciones en el mercado, niveles más altos de la volatilidad de los precios de los productos básicos y alterar fundamentalmente la forma en que funcionan los mercados de comercio de productos básicos en el futuro. Como se predijo en El amanecer de un nuevo orden en los actos de comercio de productos I y II, que apareció en el Oliver Wyman Risk Journal en 2012 y 2013, respectivamente, los comerciantes de productos básicos, que tradicionalmente Arrendados o prestados sus activos, continúan invirtiendo en activos que van desde minas de carbón hasta terminales de almacenamiento hasta cadenas minoristas de gasolina. Recientemente, los comerciantes han estado cada vez más tratando de asegurar shorts estructurales, el término de la industria para los contratos de ventas a largo plazo. Dado que hay un exceso en casi todos los tipos de productos básicos y el hecho de que han construido carteras extensas para capturar una amplia gama de opciones, los comerciantes necesitan bloquear las fuentes estables de la demanda en torno a los cuales las posiciones de suministro se pueden estructurar y optimizar. Históricamente, los comerciantes podían conseguir esto simplemente entrando contratos a largo plazo de las ventas para una materia. Pero en el entorno competitivo actual, deben organizar el financiamiento para las inversiones de activos, tomar participaciones en sus contrapartes o proporcionar algún tipo de experiencia en áreas como la gestión del riesgo financiero o la mezcla técnica para convencer a los clientes a entrar en estos acuerdos. Tomemos el ejemplo del comerciante independiente Vitol. Desde 2011, Vitol ha pagado miles de millones de dólares para comprar múltiples activos de Shell, que van desde 870 estaciones de servicio y una refinería en Australia hasta 1.185 estaciones minoristas y 900.000 metros cúbicos de almacenamiento en África. Vitol llegó a acordar invertir y cambiar una central eléctrica de fuel oil a gas licuado de petróleo para la Autoridad de Agua y Energía de las Islas Vírgenes de los Estados Unidos a fin de asegurar los pedidos de GLP durante siete años. Sintonice para escuchar cómo estos cambios afectarán no sólo a los comerciantes de commodities, sino a todas las industrias. Como los mercados de materias primas continúan cambiando, cinco nuevas tendencias se aceleran, lo que creemos que cambiará la cara de la industria de comercio de productos básicos. Estas megatendencias desvelarán nuevas vías de crecimiento para las empresas comerciales o se convertirán en una causa potencial para su destrucción. Predecir cómo se desarrollará cada uno de estos desarrollos depende de las reacciones de los participantes en el mercado, los responsables políticos y las agencias de calificación. En este artículo, examinamos tres de los posibles escenarios posibles a través de un amplio espectro de posibilidades. En nuestra opinión, cada empresa que produce, consume o comercializa productos básicos debe revisar cuidadosamente sus estrategias contra estos tres cursos potenciales de eventos. Descubra aquí cómo su empresa puede mantenerse a la vanguardia de los cambios comerciales de las materias primas en curso. Pero antes de pasar a describir esos tres escenarios, permite examinar primero las cinco tendencias que están reescribiendo las reglas. TENDENCIA 1 - MERCADOS DE PRODUCTOS MADUROS Tradicionalmente, los comerciantes de productos básicos independientes obtuvieron sus mayores ganancias al suministrar productos que no podían acceder fácilmente en mercados abiertos. Pero ahora, muchos de estos productos se negocian en mercados que son transparentes y líquidos. (Véase el Anexo 1.) Como resultado, los comerciantes ya no pueden actuar simplemente como intermediarios sin el riesgo de perder cuota de mercado. Los mercados transparentes también están reduciendo sus márgenes. Hace cinco años, los comerciantes obtuvieron márgenes de 3 a 5 por tonelada utilizando acuerdos a largo plazo de precio fijo para suministrar carbón térmico. Ahora que el carbón térmico se ha convertido en una mercancía mucho más comercializada con precios de referencia transparentes y precios indexados, estimamos que esos márgenes se han reducido en un 40 por ciento en promedio, a tan sólo 1 a 3 por tonelada. TREND 2 - BANCOS EXIT COMMODITY TRADING Desde que el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, firmó la Ley DoddFrank en la ley federal en 2010 y la normativa europea Basel III / CRD IV impuso restricciones a los bancos comerciales, nueve de los 10 mayores bancos occidentales que han estado activos en El comercio de materias primas físicas han hecho movimientos para retirarse completamente del comercio de productos básicos, o para restringir drásticamente sus actividades. Otros diez bancos más pequeños también han salido. El impacto de estos movimientos sobre la liquidez del mercado ha variado. Los mercados de derivados negociados en bolsa para productos comercializados ampliamente como el petróleo siguen siendo sólidos porque los participantes restantes recogieron el negocio dejado por los jugadores que se han marchado. Algunos equipos de comercio de productos básicos también se trasladaron de los bancos a los fondos de cobertura y otras casas comerciales. Pero los setos son escasos en nichos de mercado, especialmente para operaciones a largo plazo. Creemos que las coberturas serán escasas en más mercados en el futuro, lo que podría llevar a un aumento de los costos de cobertura para los productores y los consumidores. En última instancia, los consumidores soportarán el peso de estos costos más altos. TREND 3 - NUEVAS ESTRUCTURAS DE MERCADO SON FORJADAS El mercado de comercio de productos básicos es una estructura de tres niveles formada por productores, comerciantes de productos básicos (incluyendo intermediarios como bancos) y consumidores. Hoy en día, el equilibrio entre productores, comerciantes y consumidores difiere considerablemente entre las clases de productos básicos. Los mercados de metales y minerales están dominados por unos cuantos grandes actores, mientras que los mercados de petróleo, energía y gas están fragmentados, con muchos participantes. En los próximos años, predeciremos que la estructura de los mercados de productos básicos se volverá más homogénea. Los jugadores entrarán en los mercados donde puedan crear un valor significativo de sus posiciones existentes y salir de aquellos donde la escala global es cada vez más importante. Esta nueva estructura ya se está manifestando en múltiples mercados. Los grandes productores de materias primas, como las grandes petroleras y las petroleras nacionales, están estableciendo cada vez más actividades comerciales para que puedan monetizar su producción ascendente y ganar un mayor control sobre sus cadenas de valor. Por el contrario, los productores de energía más pequeños están reduciendo sus actividades comerciales y dejando el comercio a los jugadores más grandes. Los principales consumidores de productos blandos, también, que tienen masa crítica en una o más materias primas, se están convirtiendo en comerciantes más activos. Más empresas chinas están construyendo negocios comerciales que pueden proveer alimentos de una red más amplia de proveedores en lugar de comprar tierras agrícolas en países extranjeros. Las empresas globales de bienes de consumo envasados están siguiendo el ejemplo de los competidores con importantes negocios comerciales, como Unilever y el gigante químico BASF. Pero los operadores comerciales independientes y los productores más pequeños, que conforman el nivel medio de los mercados, siguen estando bajo presión. De hecho, se predice que pronto sólo dos a tres se mantendrá debido a un ambiente cada vez más cutthroat. Menos comerciantes que se especializan en una sola clase de materia prevalecerán. TENDENCIA 4 - PUNTOS DE PRECIO RESULTADOS DE CAMBIOS DE MÉTRICAS Dado que los comerciantes independientes requieren más capital de largo plazo para adquirir activos, están emitiendo más bonos y atrayendo una mayor atención de las agencias de calificación. Estas agencias, a su vez, están evaluando las actividades de los comerciantes independientes sobre la base de los retornos esperados de su capital total empleado en lugar de sólo sus retornos sobre el patrimonio. Es probable que los picos de precios de los productos básicos se vuelvan más comunes en reacción a este cambio básico en cómo se evalúan las rentabilidades potenciales de los oficios. Tomando la creciente cantidad de deuda asociada con las operaciones en cuenta, las agencias de calificación están aumentando el costo del capital de los comerciantes. Estos mayores costos dañan los márgenes de algunas de las estrategias comerciales más tradicionales de la industria, las cuales han sido críticas para suavizar los desequilibrios de la demanda y la oferta. Como resultado, los comerciantes independientes tienen significativamente menos incentivos para hacer disponibles volúmenes de inventario para resolver las interrupciones del suministro. Si sus costos de capital aumentan en siete puntos porcentuales, estimamos que los márgenes brutos de las operaciones asociadas a la tenencia de inventario podrían reducirse en un 50 por ciento o más en promedio. Los márgenes brutos de operaciones complejas y estructuradas, como acuerdos de suministro a precio fijo, podrían reducirse aún más. (Véase el Anexo 3.) TENDENCIA 5 - VOLATILIDAD BAJA DE LOS PRECIOS DE PRODUCTOS BASICOS SEGURIDAD DE LA OFERTA La volatilidad de las materias primas energéticas ha caído a un mínimo histórico y ahora está alrededor del 50 por ciento por debajo de su promedio a largo plazo. Está destrozando los márgenes de los comerciantes, obligándolos a acuerdos más arriesgados, más intensivos en capital y complejos. Los comerciantes también están abandonando algunos mercados o reduciendo sus actividades, resultando en menos liquidez disponible. En consecuencia, existe una mayor probabilidad de interrupciones severas del suministro que podrían causar picos de precios si la oferta o la demanda cambia súbitamente. Aunque las razones del cambio y el aumento de los riesgos en el panorama del comercio de productos básicos son claras, sus consecuencias son complicadas y no hay soluciones sencillas. Sin embargo, hemos identificado tres escenarios ilustrativos que describen posibles desarrollos. El movimiento de un escenario a otro puede ocurrir dependiendo de las reacciones regulatorias o del mercado a estas ocurrencias. Si los niveles actuales de baja volatilidad de los precios de los productos básicos continúan y los reglamentos actuales y las normas contables siguen vigentes, existe un riesgo significativo de que los actores activos en los mercados que Están llenando el vacío dejado por los bancos también tendrá que reducir eventualmente sus actividades. La rentabilidad general de la negociación será mínima. Comerciantes, consumidores y productores independientes de productos básicos podrán fácilmente encontrar usos más prometedores y de mayor retorno para su capital. La disponibilidad de productos de cobertura y volúmenes spot será limitada. Las interrupciones del mercado tendrán un mayor impacto en los precios y las cadenas de suministro. Los intermediarios y sus herramientas, como las coberturas y el inventario, se perderán, haciendo difícil para los comerciantes para suavizar los desequilibrios de la misma manera que han tradicionalmente. Aunque creemos que este es el menos probable de nuestros tres escenarios, es también el que los jugadores del mercado más necesitan para protegerse. Si se desarrolla, habrá importantes trastornos en el comercio mundial que perjudicarán tanto a los consumidores industriales de productos básicos como a los hogares privados. Pero un escenario diferente podría materializarse si estas tendencias son mitigadas por nuevos desarrollos. Podría lograrse un mejor equilibrio entre la oferta y la demanda si las agencias calificadoras tratan el inventario negociable y la deuda a corto plazo de manera diferente de lo que lo hacen hoy en día. La volatilidad del mercado también podría volver a su promedio histórico a largo plazo. ESCENA 2 - VOLVER A NORMAL La combinación de la volatilidad de los precios de los productos básicos que vuelve a un promedio a largo plazo y un tratamiento diferente del inventario comercializable por las agencias de calificación hará que los mercados de comercio de productos básicos sean más atractivos. En respuesta, los productores de productos básicos, los consumidores y los nuevos inversores se volverán más activos, reemplazando a los bancos que han abandonado el comercio de productos básicos. Los jugadores físicos establecidos construirán una oferta de estructuración de productos y gestión de riesgos similar a la de un banco. Esto les permitirá ofrecer soluciones de gestión de riesgos a sus clientes y actuar como creadores de mercado. El resultado podría ser un mercado que funcione bien, muy similar al de hoy, con diferentes actores proporcionando el colchón para las interrupciones del mercado a corto plazo y soluciones de gestión de riesgos a más largo plazo. Los participantes que creen en este escenario tienen un fuerte incentivo para construir la estructuración de productos y la capacidad de gestión de riesgos ahora con el fin de estar preparado y posicionarse como los jugadores go-to. Las empresas que no pueden determinar cuál de los dos escenarios es más probable que se produzca debe construir el conjunto básico de capacidades y luego estar preparados para escalarlos en función de la evolución del mercado. Sin embargo, también es posible que el sector comercial crezca en el futuro. Si eso ocurre, los bancos pueden volver a la arena. ESCENARIO 3 - EL RETORNO DE LOS BANCOS Cuando los legisladores estadounidenses y europeos impusieron restricciones a los bancos que los animaban a abandonar el negocio de comercio de productos básicos, su objetivo era evitar otra Gran Recesión estabilizando a los bancos y al sistema financiero en general. También tenían como objetivo desalentar el comercio especulativo que podría impulsar los precios al consumidor. Sin embargo, existe el riesgo de que sus esfuerzos puedan tener el efecto contrario. Creemos que los precios de las materias primas pronto serán más vulnerables a las interrupciones repentinas de lo que han sido durante la última década, y lo seguirán siendo en el futuro previsible. Como resultado, cuando hay interrupciones, los mercados experimentarán más picos, lo que tendrá un mayor impacto en la economía real y los consumidores en los próximos años. Las regulaciones pueden necesitar ser revisadas para permitir que los bancos vuelvan a entrar en el negocio de comercio de productos básicos para proporcionar liquidez del mercado y una oferta de gestión de riesgo a las corporaciones industriales en los mercados occidentales desarrollados. Los bancos en mercados emergentes menos regulados (como Asia o Oriente Medio) que no están sujetos a estas restricciones probablemente se convertirán en actores importantes por derecho propio. Apoyarán las operaciones comerciales de los productores y consumidores de productos básicos, empezando por las empresas comerciales locales. Creemos que este escenario potencialmente se materializará con el tiempo como consecuencia del Escenario 2. Las compañías que se posicionen bien para los dos primeros escenarios se beneficiarán. Si los bancos vuelven a entrar en el comercio de productos básicos, las empresas que han intervenido para proporcionar los servicios tradicionalmente proporcionados por los bancos tendrá una posición de mercado fuerte para entonces y puede considerar la expansión más a través de empresas conjuntas u otras formas de cooperación con los bancos. GANANDO EL CONTROL DEL CAMBIO RADICAL Los paisajes de negocios que cambian radicalmente pueden obstaculizar a las empresas capaces cuando no entienden lo que está sucediendo a su alrededor y por qué. Sin embargo, se ha sabido que los gerentes que se toman el tiempo necesario para comprender cambios potenciales de paradigma transforman los cambios en oportunidades de crecimiento. Las tendencias y escenarios que hemos presentado en este artículo no sólo son relevantes para las empresas que actualmente participan en el comercio de productos básicos. Cada empresa que hace uso de los productos básicos, ya sea como materia prima o en forma procesada, sentirá su impacto. Los consumidores también pueden enfrentar períodos de precios cada vez más volátiles para la gasolina, el poder y otros productos básicos. En consecuencia, entender estos desarrollos y prepararse para sus ramificaciones potenciales puede ayudar a una amplia variedad de empresas a obtener una ventaja competitiva ya aumentar sus márgenes más que sus competidores más pasivos. Como mínimo, recomendamos que todas las empresas que comercialicen, consuman o produzcan productos básicos deben evaluar sus capacidades actuales y su posición estratégica a la luz de las tendencias y escenarios descritos. Los equipos directivos deben plantearse tres preguntas cruciales: PREGUNTA PRIMERA Cuál es el escenario o serie de escenarios que creo que es más probable? CUESTIÓN DOS Qué capacidades me falta para ser uno de los jugadores que prospera en este escenario PREGUNTA TRES Quiero Para invertir en la construcción de estas capacidades con el fin de posicionarme estratégicamente para este potencial de desarrollo Las empresas que abierta y críticamente participar en este debate serán los líderes del mercado futuro. Estarán dispuestos a aprovechar las oportunidades creadas por los nuevos desarrollos. Otros pueden ser capturados por sorpresa cuando una situación de repente transforma los mercados de materias primas como han llegado a conocerlos. Por: ALEXANDER FRANKE, ERNST FRANKL, ROLAND RECHTSTEINER y GRAHAM SHARP Energy Journal Vol. 1 Secciones Información relacionadaAnalizando las estrategias comerciales del mercado de productos básicos dentro de un ambiente corporativo Robert E. Markland Profesor asociado-Ciencias de la Administración, Universidad de Missouri-St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri 63121, EE. UU. Robert J. Newett Consultor-Operaciones de Investigación, Ralston Purina Company, St. Louis, Missouri, EE. UU. Disponible en línea 19 de mayo de 2003. Resumen La mejora de la planificación de compras de productos básicos sigue siendo un problema formidable en muchos Empresas agroindustriales. Este artículo aborda este problema dentro del ambiente de compra de maíz de una gran compañía alimentaria estadounidense. Se desarrolla un modelo de simulación de horizonte temporal para probar varios planes de compra de productos básicos. El modelo se utiliza para analizar las interacciones entre varias estrategias de cobertura, reglas de toma de ganancias y reglas de stop-loss, durante un período de tiempo prolongado, en condiciones de mercado simuladas. Se presentan y discuten extensos resultados de las pruebas. Copyright 1975 Publicado por Elsevier Ltd. Artículos citados () Valor Relativo de los Productos Básicos - Capitalizando la Alta Volatilidad A través del Espectro de las Mercancías May. 26, 2016 9:36 AM Por Hedge Fund Solutions Group La volatilidad significativa en el complejo de materias primas ha creado oportunidades relativas para los fondos de cobertura. Un mercado bursátil multianual en materias primas ha llevado a los inversionistas a explorar oportunidades más activas dentro de la clase de activos. Esto es evidente a partir de un mayor enfoque en los fondos de cobertura de commodities por parte de los inversores institucionales como una alternativa a las estrategias pasivas. En este informe especial, examinamos detenidamente este segmento de fondos de cobertura, considerando características clave y tendencias de desempeño, y ofreciendo nuestra perspectiva para el resto del año y más allá. Puntos clave Definir el universo de los fondos de cobertura de materias primas Discutir las perspectivas para los fondos de cobertura de los productos básicos y por qué el entorno actual puede ser productivo 1. Definición del universo de fondos de cobertura de commodities Los fondos de cobertura de productos básicos representan un subconjunto relativamente pequeño dentro de la categoría macro de hedge funds macro. HFRI calcula que, a finales de 2015, los fondos de cobertura de productos básicos dedicados tenían un total de activos bajo administración de 23.330 millones (bn), o alrededor de 0.81 del total de activos de la industria de fondos de cobertura. Tras un fuerte desempeño relativo en 2008, estos fondos de alto riesgo atrajeron a más inversionistas, con lo que los activos dedicados alcanzaron los 28.330mn de finales de 2011. Desde entonces, el espacio ha experimentado salidas netas, especialmente en 2012 y 2013; Fue un año de entradas modestas. Este período de varios años ha incluido una serie de cierres de alto perfil, incluyendo Clive Capital en 2013 y Brevan Howard Commodities Fund, Armajaro, Galena, Río Negro, Vermillion y Krom River en 2015, con los fondos en su mayoría citando los retos en la captación de activos en el espacio En lugar de decepciones de rendimiento significativo para sus cierres. Por otro lado, el universo también ha visto una serie de nuevos lanzamientos en los últimos dos años, típicamente spinouts de los equipos de apoyo de bancos prop o de fondos de cobertura multi-estrategia como ambos grupos han tendido a Salir de los productos básicos. Esto incluye cinco nuevos lanzamientos en 2015 y varios lanzamientos de alto perfil previstos este año. La nueva actividad de lanzamiento parece estar acompañada por un aumento en el interés de los inversionistas, con la Encuesta Anual de Inversionistas de Barclays proyectando un aumento de 5 en entradas a fondos de cobertura de commodities este año. 1 Es interesante observar que, aunque hay algunos fondos de cobertura en el grupo de productos básicos con mayores antecedentes (es decir, más de 10 años), las citadas paradas y nuevos lanzamientos en los últimos años han dado como resultado que la edad promedio actual del grupo de pares sea relativamente joven , Con poco menos de cuatro años. Los fondos de cobertura de commodities son un grupo dispar, en términos de estrategia y estilo subyacente, como se muestra en el siguiente diagrama. Esto puede hacer que sean difíciles de comparar entre sí y también puede resultar en una dispersión significativa del rendimiento de los grupos de pares durante un período dado. Es también esta diferencia en los estilos de negociación, en los instrumentos negociados y en el enfoque de sub-sector que proporciona la capacidad de inclinación de una cartera a donde se encuentran las oportunidades más convincentes actuales. Figura 4.1: Fondo de Cobertura de Hedge Fund Fuente: Neuberger Berman. 2. Estilos de negociación de los fondos de cobertura de materias primas La mayoría de los fondos de cobertura de los productos básicos buscan llevar a cabo análisis fundamentales detallados para descubrir errores de impresión debido a un desequilibrio de oferta y demanda en los mercados comercializados. Dicha dinámica les permite tomar posiciones largas y cortas respectivas para capitalizar estas dislocaciones. La gran mayoría de los gerentes de productos básicos no generan retornos simplemente por movimientos de precios planos largos o cortos, sino que buscan jugar relaciones de valor relativo dentro de estos mercados. La naturaleza de estas relaciones subyacentes difiere algo según el subsector, por lo que consideraremos brevemente cada uno de los principales componentes del índice a su vez. Muchas de estas relaciones de valor relativo se han mantenido sin cambios en el mercado más amplio selloff mercado (y, de hecho, los comicios de 2016). En algunos casos, las dislocaciones de los mercados de productos básicos han aumentado en los últimos años debido a una reducción de los participantes y al efecto de distorsión de los flujos, creando así oportunidades que los administradores activos han podido explotar. Energía: Entorno saludable para el comercio de valor relativo La revolución del petróleo de los xileos de los Estados Unidos ha dado lugar a cambios significativos en los mercados de energía, incluidos los flujos de cobertura a gran escala, que han creado atractivas oportunidades comerciales y puntos de entrada en los mercados de petróleo y productos relacionados. Esto se ha visto acompañado de un menor capital de riesgo en los productos básicos en general, lo que ha dado lugar a que los fundamentos y los acontecimientos tarden más en reflejarse en los precios. Además, las dislocaciones que se producen pueden ser mayores en magnitud que históricamente, todo lo cual es positivo para las relaciones comerciales de valor relativo. Dentro del complejo energético, las relaciones de valor relativo comúnmente negociadas se detallan a continuación. Time Spreads: El comercio de la forma de la curva hacia adelante, que ya sea en contango o backwardation, por ejemplo, WTI corto frente al mes y WTI de diciembre de 2017 largo. Arbs geográficos: Los oficios que son largos un contrato geográficamente enumerado contra otro dentro del mismo producto. El comercio más común implica el contrato global de petróleo, Brent, contra el contrato de EE. UU., WTI. Otro ejemplo es el aceite de calefacción estadounidense contra Gasoil europeo, también conocido como el arb de calor. Crack Spreads, o Cracks: Parece aprovechar las relaciones de precios entre el petróleo crudo y sus productos refinados, por ejemplo, el combustible de calefacción corta frente a WTI largo. Diferencia: Relación de precios entre los distintos grados de un producto frente al índice de referencia, por ejemplo, el crudo corto y el gasóleo largo. Márgenes: Parece jugar el precio post-refinado de un producto en comparación con sus costos de insumos. Por ejemplo, los márgenes de compensación europeos consideran los precios de salida del gasóleo, del jet, de la nafta y del LSFO (fuelóleo bajo en azufre) contra el precio de entrada de Brent, teniendo en cuenta la relación estándar de producción de estos productos en el proceso de refinado. Calidad Arbs: La relación de precios entre las variaciones en la calidad del mismo producto. Por ejemplo, productos de crudo dulce largo (Brent), crudo corto amargo (Dubai) y ligero (por ejemplo, nafta) frente a pesado (por ejemplo, fuelóleo de alto contenido de azufre). El Gráfico 4.2 muestra la volatilidad en el spread Brent-WTI desde 2010. Brent y WTI son aceites crudos ligeros, aunque el WTI es marginalmente más alto en calidad y, antes de la revolución de esquisto de los Estados Unidos, generalmente se comercializa con una leve prima al Brent. Desde 2010, Brent se ha negociado en una prima impulsada por el bien suministrado mercado de crudo de Estados Unidos (frente a contrapartes globales) y, hasta su eliminación en diciembre de 2105, la prohibición de exportación de petróleo de Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, el alcance exacto de este diferencial se debe a la dinámica de la oferta y la demanda regional a corto plazo, como las estaciones de mantenimiento de las refinerías, las interrupciones que afectan la oferta y las perturbaciones meteorológicas. Otros factores también afectarán este arbitraje, incluyendo el costo de envío y transporte, lo que puede hacer que no sea rentable entregar Brent a los Estados Unidos. Figura 4.2: Fuente Brent-WTI Fuente: Bloomberg. Datos hasta el 31 de marzo de 2016. La figura 4.3 ilustra la volatilidad en el spread Brent-WTI en el contexto del precio fijo del WTI a lo largo del período de noviembre de 2010 a julio de 2014. En este período, se puede ver que el arb La diferencia se amplió materialmente, mostrando que las relaciones de valor relativo también pueden exhibir tendencias negociables a mediano plazo. Figura 4.3: Diferencial WTI-Brent versus WTI Precio Fijo Fuente: Bloomberg, Neuberger Berman. Datos de noviembre de 2010 a julio de 2014. Datos reajustados al comienzo de la serie cronológica. Los datos muestran el retorno acumulado de WTI y WTI / Brent durante este período. Si bien el comercio de valor relativo en los mercados de energía ha proporcionado oportunidades relativamente favorables en los últimos años, creemos que las perspectivas actuales deberían mantenerse fuertes incluso en el caso de un mercado de petróleo de gama variable para los próximos 12-18 meses. Los shocks de oferta y demanda que son comunes en los mercados petroleros crean volatilidad, la cual puede ser negociada efectivamente. Hay abundantes ejemplos históricos de cortes de suministro, por ejemplo, impulsados por cambios en las políticas de la OPEP o disturbios geopolíticos en áreas como Rusia, Ucrania y Oriente Medio. El sistema también es propenso a los cortes de refinería y los cuellos de botella de la tubería, junto con la sensibilidad al clima, lo que puede afectar la oferta o la demanda. Históricamente este tipo de choques exógenos relacionados con el clima, como el huracán Katrina en 2005, han dado lugar a oportunidades de valor relativo. Como se señaló, en diciembre de 2015 se eliminó la prohibición de exportación de crudo de los Estados Unidos, que había estado en vigor desde la década de 1970. Esto resultó en la compresión de la propagación entre Brent y WTI a medias de corto plazo, con Brent incluso negociando a un descuento a WTI en el mercado opinión de que el desarrollo podría resolver los posibles problemas de almacenamiento de petróleo crudo EE. UU. y las preocupaciones que podíamos ver Camisetas sin mangas. Esta dislocación rápidamente se revirtió en enero, pero más volatilidad parece probable este año. La apertura de las exportaciones de GNL también está todavía en su infancia, pero es probable que repercuta en los precios mundiales del gas, posiblemente con un cierto grado de convergencia entre los precios del gas natural europeo y estadounidense. Por último, el tema de la conmutación de energía, con el crecimiento de la energía limpia, también podría presentar varias operaciones geográficas y de sustitución y probablemente dará lugar a presiones sobre los precios del gas natural a largo plazo. Metales: un mercado en evolución Durante los últimos 10 años, los mercados de metales han continuado su evolución desde un negocio físico sólo para comerciantes hasta un lugar donde grandes participantes financieros han desplegado capital en un intento de generar ingresos y obtener información. Cada vez más, la disparidad de los participantes en el mercado está causando desconexiones. Sin embargo, el cambio más significativo en los mercados de metales en los últimos años ha sido el crecimiento del comercio de metales chinos, en especial el Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). El crecimiento del comercio allí ha sido tan material que en algunos metales como el níquel, el volumen diario es ahora mayor que en la LME. La naturaleza de los inversores chinos también ha cambiado la dinámica de los mercados de metales, ya que ahora reflejan una parte importante de la LME y COMEX. Las oportunidades de valor relativo en los metales pueden ser impulsadas, entre otras cosas, por desequilibrios regionales de la oferta y la demanda, por el flujo de los participantes en el mercado, eventos de noticias y cambios estructurales que el mercado no cotiza. Esto último puede ser particularmente pertinente en los mercados de metales dado el largo plazo en la construcción de nuevas minas, lo que puede resultar en una respuesta retrasada por la oferta en relación con la demanda. Time Spreads: Al igual que en el mercado de la energía, el comercio más común es a través de la curva, por ejemplo, LME a largo plazo frente al cobre LME cobre de diciembre de 2017. Cross Exchange Arbitrage: Comercio de los mismos metales a través de los tres diferentes intercambios geográficos-LME, COMEX y SHFE. Por ejemplo, un comerciante podría ser de cobre largo LME y cobre corto COMEX. Las relaciones más interesantes a menudo existen entre SHFE y LME. La dependencia de las importaciones chinas combinada con las restricciones comerciales extranjeras y nacionales significa que las ineficiencias de precios son comunes. Un ejemplo se muestra en la Figura 4.4. Las dislocaciones en la relación entre los precios de los metales a menudo son impulsadas por la oferta regional o las diferencias de demanda, sin embargo, existe una paridad de importación / exportación donde un metal es incentivado para ser enviado, haciendo que la propagación de media revertir en la naturaleza. Distribución entre SHFE y LME Fuente: Bloomberg. Datos hasta el 31 de marzo de 2016. Relación Tratos: Existen relaciones históricas de precios entre ciertos metales tanto en el complejo precioso como en el complejo base, que pueden distorsionarse en movimientos de precios no fundamentales, por ejemplo plata versus oro y cobre versus plomo. Un ejemplo se muestra en la Figura 4.5. Figura 4.5: Relación Oro vs. Plata Relación entre el Retorno Comercial: Oro y Plata Fuente: Bloomberg. Datos hasta el 31 de marzo de 2016. A finales de 2010, la plata subió significativamente, superando el oro para llevarlo a una prima de ratio históricamente alta. Esto se invirtió a mediados de 2012. Hoy en día la plata está cotizando a un descuento histórico de oro. Inter-Commodity Spreads: Jugando divergentes fundamentos subyacentes en relación con la oferta y la demanda en el complejo de metales, por ejemplo, níquel largo y cobre corto. Estos mercados son distintos de la energía y los metales en que están más impulsados por la estacionalidad (es decir, el cultivo de los cultivos y los períodos de cosecha) y son más vulnerables a las interrupciones relacionadas con el clima. Por ejemplo, la sequía extrema en el Medio Oeste de EE. UU. en 2012 resultó en una disminución de 50 en la producción de maíz entre junio y agosto de ese año. El hecho de que haya un período de almacenamiento finito antes de que se impacte la calidad también distingue al grupo. Los cambios en el valor relativo pueden ocurrir debido al cambio en los patrones de consumo, las relaciones de precios de alimentos versus energía, los productores o compradores la huella del mercado, los costos de transporte, los aranceles o las subvenciones, la estacionalidad, las cosechas por encima o por debajo de la media, los choques de oferta geopolítica Sequía interna) o desequilibrios globales más genéricos en la oferta y la demanda. Algunas de las relaciones de valor relativo son similares a los mercados de energía y metales, pero este mercado único también presenta sus propias relaciones negociables. Time Spreads: This dynamic is similar to metals and energy, and can be used to invest in new crop versus old crop relationships. Geographic Spreads: This involves going long and short the same commodity, traded on different exchanges. One example would be to trade European wheat relative to U. S. wheat or London cocoa against New York cocoa. These contracts typically have different regions for both crop growth and end market demand factors such as harvest quality and unique geographical weather patterns mean these relationships can exhibit meaningful volatility. For example, it is possible to have a strong U. S. wheat crop harvest in the same year as a poor European crop harvest. An example is shown in Figure 4.6. Figure 4.6: Wheat Relative Value Trades Wheat relative value relationships have exhibited material volatility since 2010. Source: Bloomberg. Data through December 31, 2015. Quality Spreads: Investors go long and short quality segments of the same commodity. Examples include malt versus feed barley, Robusta versus Arabica coffee, and within the wheat complex where varying harvest success can result in materially different protein contents. Processing Spreads: The difference between input and output costs. For example, soybean crush spread is the relationship between the input price of the soybean and the output price of soybean meal and soybean oil, and the corn/ethanol crush spread is the relationship between corn, ethanol and dry distiller grain pricing whereby corn is converted into ethanol and the byproduct DDG. Refinery margins can also be traded for commodities, which need to be processed and purified, for example, in the case of raw sugar versus cane sugar. Substitution Trades: Long and short commodities which are substitutable because they have similar physical characteristics. For example, various grains can be substituted in animal feed, as can commodities in the oil seed complex, such as palm oil versus soybean oil. 3. Performance Characteristics of the Commodity Universe One of the most attractive reasons for the inclusion of commodities both at the asset allocation level and within a hedge fund portfolio has been diversification. Given that commodities often have a different set of drivers than credit and equity markets, as well as other hedge funds, the return profile has looked very different. While correlations have oscillated over the years, Figure 4.7 reflects this profile. In addition, we believe that commodity hedge funds can be a source of meaningful contribution to returns for a number of reasons related to market structure and the style of the underlying managers. Figure 4.7: Correlation of HFRX Commodity Index to HFRX Absolute Return Index Source: HFRI. Data through March 31, 2016. Despite a challenging period for the asset class, commodity hedge funds have largely preserved capital through the bear market and, using a longer look back, have provided compelling performance. Over the past 12 years, the HFRX Macro Commodity Index has outperformed the HFRX Absolute Return by 44 and the GSCI Index by 103, meaning that it is one of the stronger performing sub-indices over this period. Within the commodity hedge fund universe, performance dispersion has also been higher than most other hedge fund strategies in recent years for example, in 2015, the spread between best and worst performing commodity hedge fund was in excess of 50. The display below shows the performance of Neuberger Bermans concentrated commodities hedge fund peer group since 2006. 2 The data should be analyzed with the usual caveats of potential selection biases, but we believe it is a realistic picture of an actively selected group and illustrates the potential benefits of selective active investing and fund selection in the sector. Figure 4.8: NB Commodity Hedge Fund Peer Group - Historical Performance Source: NB Alternatives. Data from September 2006 through March 2016. This peer group focuses on 15-20 managers in the commodities universe. This includes relative value hedge funds as well as genuine long-short directional funds, while excluding quasi-long-only managers. It also includes managers trading markets which have been less impacted by a lower volatility regime, such as power and electricity. It can be seen that in some instances an allocation to commodity hedge funds has significantly outperformed the broader hedge fund universe in the last five years as certain managers have posted strong returns, while providing an attractive diversifying return profile in a portfolio. 4. Key Contributors to Commodity Hedge Fund Outperformance A number of factors have contributed to the success of certain commodity hedge fund outperformance over time. Although no one formula exists, these include the ability to employ relative value and directional trading to capitalize on the dispersion of commodity performance, the ability to trade outside of major commodity index sectors, technical knowledge and relationships, and the flexibility to move among commodity sectors and trading styles. We elaborate further in this section of the chapter. (a) Investment Style: Relative Value and Directional At a basic level, the most obvious source of returns for active commodity managers, particularly over the last two years, has been on the short side. Some of the best-performing commodity hedge funds in the peer group had net short crude oil positions throughout 2015. By way of illustration, a passive 50 net exposed short WTI position initiated in November 2014 after OPEC announced that it would not cut oil production would have generated a positive internal rate of return (NYSE:IRR ) of 21 through January 1, 2016. The volatility would obviously have been high given the temporary rally in the first quarter of 2015, but active trading and risk management could have smoothed this and resulted in even stronger returns. The HFRX Commodity Energy sub-index generated a positive return of 3.5 in 2015 despite this index including managers who took aggressively bullish oil positions throughout the year. Similarly, some managers within the NB commodity peer group generated strong returns from bearish views in base metals across 2014 and 2015. However, this positioning was clearly not shared by the broader peer group, and the HFRX Commodity Metals sub-index finished down 12.4. We believe the index data to be somewhat biased by a small dataset and issues around outliers. While the overall commodities complex has traded down over the last five years, the trend hides meaningful dispersion. Commodity indices comprise set weights to underlying sub-sectors, which are re-weighted on an annual basis. Each has a slightly different methodology: The GSCI is a world production-weighted index while the Bloomberg Commodity Index takes into account both liquidity and global economic significance. As a result, energy comprise a larger proportion of the GSCI, as shown below. Figure 4.9: Sector Weightings in Key Commodity Indices Source: Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg. Given the parameters for inclusion in the index basket, this will mean that certain commodities dominate its performance while others are excluded altogether. Consequently, despite the indexs recent negative performance (the GSCI fell 33.1 and 32.9, in 2014 and 2015, respectively), some constituents finished in positive territory. This allowed active managers to find pockets of opportunity even on the long side. For instance, the long cocoa trade would have been profitable last year, as shown in Figure 4.10. Figure 4.10: Commodity Performance Dispersion Source: Bloomberg. Data as of December 31, 2015. Figure 4.11: GSCI Sub-Index Performance Source: Goldman Sachs. Data through March 31, 2015. This divergence has been reflected in hedge fund index returns, as evidenced by the performance of the HFRX Commodity sub-indices, suggesting that material value can be added on the asset allocation side rotating between sub-sectors. For example, last year saw a 38 divergence between the performance of the best (energy) and the worst (metals) index sub-sectors, even if, as noted above, we believe the index data may not be fully representative. (b) Universe of Investment: Exclusion of Niche Areas Creates Opportunity Certain commodities are excluded from the two most commonly used indices, the GSCI Index and the Bloomberg Commodity Index, due to liquidity parameters or their relatively small percentage impact on overall global commodity production. This creates opportunities because these commodities are not impacted by passive flows. Instead, the trading nature can be much more related to supply and demand dynamics, offering interesting opportunities for managers who are able to undertake the fundamental deep-dive work. Cocoa futures represent an example of such a niche market. They can be traded both outright and as an arbitrage between London and New York, and offer a deep liquid futures market. Other, smaller traded contracts include milk, lumber, orange juice, butter, oats and rice within the agriculture bucket. In energy, they include many of the crude-related products outside of gasoil and heating oil such as propane, ethanol and naphtha as well as coal. In the metals space, they include platinum and palladium in the precious segment, and tin and lead within base metals, and even more minor metals such as cobalt and rhodium. These contracts might not pass the liquidity parameters for index inclusion but remain sufficiently liquid for commodity hedge funds that typically have an AUM of under 500 million. Other products are largely ignored by passive commodity investors because, despite being large and liquid markets, their main listing is outside Europe or the U. S. For example, rubber falls into this category as its most liquid traded futures contracts are on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. Outside of the main commodity groupings of energy, agriculture and metals reside other commodity-related instruments that are less commonly traded by market participants, for example the shipping market. The supply and demand dynamics of shipping are materially impacted by a number of commodity markets. In the dry bulk space, the segment includes the most commonly carried materials of iron ore, thermal and met coal. In the tanker space, it is impacted by the movement of seaborne oil and its related products. Shipping rates are traded as forward freight agreements (NYSE:FFA ), which are exchange-cleared swap deals traded on the Baltic Exchange based upon specific ocean freight routes. For example, Capesize vessels (the largest category of cargo ships) are the most commonly traded and primarily carry iron ore and coal, while smaller vessels such as Panamax and Handymax also carry grains and fertilizers. These dry bulk contracts are the most liquid market but container ships and tankers have listed FFA contracts which, like dry bulk, are diversified across ship size and time frame. Figure 4.12 demonstrates that some of these more niche commodity markets, such as the capesize FFAs, can be highly volatile even amid a more range-bound environment for broader commodities. For example, the space experienced a mini-bull market rally in cape rates during the second half of 2013 although more recently has traded to historical lows, mirroring several other commodity markets. Figure 4.12: Capesize Freight Rates Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs. Data through March 31, 2016. Another example of a niche market where alpha can be extracted is power and electricity. Electricity futures contracts are traded as listed instruments on both the EEX in Europe and ICE in the U. S. and there is a deep options market in the segment. These markets are often ignored by large active managers given their complexity and limited scale. However, a small dedicated peer group does trade this space and has generally posted strong performance since 2008. One of the reasons is that investor participation is largely on the part of utilities, which do not always act for purely economic reasons. For example, electricity generators sell electricity on forward and future markets to ensure future sales and reduce their vulnerability to possible electricity price decreases. Conversely, industrial electricity consumers may buy electricity on forward and future markets to secure their future electricity consumption at upfront known costs and reduce their vulnerability to possible electricity price increases. These electricity markets display high volatility because power of this nature cannot be stored, making them vulnerable to large supply or demand shocks (e. g. caused by weather events or unplanned power plant outages). This is particularly the case in Europe, which has seen the growth of alternative energy such as solar, wind and hydroelectricity where output varies meaningfully, depending on weather conditions. Given the unpredictable output and the fact these sources of power compete favorably in the power stack with more traditional power sources such as coal and lignite, power prices can exhibit extreme volatility depending on available supply at a particular time. These unique features can provide significant investment opportunities for managers with specialist expertise. (c) Supply and Demand Analysis: Key Success Factors The trading backgrounds of hedge fund managers as well as their deep, well-resourced teams are beneficial in active trading of the commodity markets. Many of the hedge funds in the NB commodities peer group have a background of prop trading for one of the large commodity trading houses such as Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, Vitol, Glencore, Trafigura, Noble and Mercuria. Some have previously traded for more niche regional trading houses, for example in China or other more niche sub-sector specialists. Several managers in the peer group retain a formalized knowledge and network-sharing agreement with a physical trading house. This acts to give the managers a strong network of relationships across these markets as well as an understanding of how these dominant forces act in the market. Visibility on physical flows is typically helpful in futures trading. Hedge funds, particularly sub-sector focused managers, are able to dedicate significant resources to fundamental analysis, building proprietary supply and demand models. This can enable them to identify shifting trends or inventory balances in a commodity before other market participants, many of whom rely on standardized Wall Street research. This phenomenon has been even more prevalent in recent years as banks have moved out of the commodity space and shut down their research teams. (d) Breadth of Style Provides Advantages Managers can opportunistically trade over various time horizons, which can also act as a source of return alpha. Short-term trading in particular can act as a PampL generator, with various nuances existing in commodity markets as different global exchanges open or as routine hedging contracts look to be filled or as traders squared their books for the day. Similarly, opportunities can exist around roll periods. More broadly, many participants in the commodities markets tend to restrict their trading to specific parts of the curve. For example, in the metals market, Chinese traders typically transact at the front of the curve. In this space, you will also tend to find CTAs who are forced to trade at or near the front end of the curve due to liquidity issues. At the other end of the spectrum, producers tend to trade out on the curve in the 1-10 year space. Consumer hedging can be more active and opportunistic on the trading side but also tends to dominate further out on the curve. Trading houses will invest across the curve but often engage in hedging activity rather than acting on a purely economic basis. This can result in anomalous pricing across curves which hedge funds may look to exploit. In addition, active managers have the ability to make use of options to add to returns when they look attractive from a risk/reward standpoint. Less common is the trading of physical commodities, but this can provide interesting opportunities within a tightly risk-managed framework. For example, looking at the metals complex, in 2010 a number of metal warehouses around the world were purchased by large financial institutions, which resulted in the emergence of numerous physical versus financial disconnects. These included long queues to take metal out of warehouses, meaning that physical metal outside these queues could potentially be sold at a premium. Physical trades could also include storage trades in a contango market or geographic arbitrage due to a global imbalance of supply or demand. Another important sub-component in the commodity peer group is managers who trade commodity-related equities, typically with a relatively market-neutral or long/short approach. Figure 4.13 shows the performance of the MSCI World Energy Index and the GSCI Energy sub-index. As shown, there have been various points since 2000 when one asset class has outperformed the other. An allocation to energy futures would have outperformed until mid-2008, and then largely underperformed. The ability to actively allocate between the two can therefore be incrementally beneficial to portfolio performance. Figure 4.13: GSCI Energy Index vs. MSCI World Energy Index Source: Goldman Sachs, MSCI. Data through March 31, 2016. The other potential advantage of the addition of commodity-related equities to a portfolio is that it provides exposure to commodity-related markets that cannot be expressed through commodity futures, yet trade based on similar supply and demand dynamics. For example, the universe of shipping equities is both broader and more liquid than the FFA market, and also provides exposure to LPG and LNG vessels. Within the energy complex, equities can provide additional thematic exposure to coal, alternative energy, refiners, oil services, pipelines, utilities, chemicals and EampP. In the agriculture space, more specialist exposure added through equities could include processors, plantations, fertilizers, producers, and pulp and paper. Within metals, the equities universe is less niche, but exposure to miners can be potentially rewarding at various times in the cycle the same can be said for mining equipment providers such as dynamite and blasting companies. 5. Current Outlook Commodity hedge funds have demonstrated pockets of strong return generation ability in what most would regard as a challenging commodity market environment. However, there are several reasons why we believe that commodity hedge funds could be at an inflection point, entering a period of strong performance. (a) Higher Volatility Between 2009 and 2014, we witnessed a period of compressed volatility in the asset class which made it challenging for active managers. The most probable reason is that, at the balance sheet level, a number of commodities spent most of the period with higher-than-average inventory levels in a lower global growth environment with roughly balanced supply and demand dynamics. This led to lower volatility, with markets grinding downward towards cost support levels. Since 2015, which saw significant price declines across global commodity markets, there have been signs of a reversal, and we believe it is likely that the balance of 2016 will see sustained higher volatility. Figure 4.14: Rolling 12-Month Standard Deviation of BCOM and GSCI Indices Source: Bloomberg Indices, Goldman Sachs. Rolling 12-month correlation from January 2000 to March 2016. The trendless market from 2009 and 2014, and the shift starting in 2015, are also evident in the performance of the Barclays Commodity Trend Index in Figure 4.15. This index is essentially a trend-following model designed to take advantage of upward or downward trends observed in the commodity markets. The model looks at a combination of the direction and consistency of a trend to take a long, short or neutral position over a medium-term horizon. Figure 4.15: Barclays Commodity Trend Index Performance Source: Barclays. Indexed from 100 in January 2000 through March 2016. The period of flat performance from 2009 to 2015 reflects a significant length of time when the model held neutral positioning due to the absence of trends in underlying commodity markets. Entering 2016, we have already seen significant short-term spikes in volatility, particularly in the energy complex. For example, in the last two weeks of January short-term one-month realized oil volatility topped 75 and the oscillation between risk-on and risk-off moves on a daily and weekly basis has been stark despite the overall rallying crude market. Commodity markets, particularly those in which the underlying commodity is difficult or expensive to store, are vulnerable to short-term price moves regardless of long-term secular trends. Currently, many commodities are trading close to cost support following the recent bear market. This means that news flow (for example regarding supply cuts) is particularly impactful on price. There is also a tendency for price to overreact on news flows-for example, the liquidation by a large market participant-and this can result in mean reversion as the market rationalizes. Recent volatility has also been driven by weather, with El Nio weather patterns pushing up prices in a number of agricultural commodities toward the end of 2015. An El Nio season is seemingly underway, which could impact crop growth in various geographies (for example cocoa, coffee, palm oil, sugar and cotton in Southeast Asia, where historically the weather pattern has resulted in drought). With La Nia cooling patterns likely to follow an El Nio period, it seems probable that weather-related volatility will remain elevated through 2016 and into 2017. The impact on other commodity sub-sectors is more marginal, but a cooler period is associated with higher energy demand. Growing geopolitical tensions will likely result in commodity market volatility remaining at these raised levels. This will likely be particularly impactful in global energy markets in relation to Middle Eastern supply while tensions in Russia or Ukraine could have a bearing on agriculture markets. Within the precious metals complex, continued macro uncertainty and equity market turbulence could be beneficial for gold pricing, with the rally in the first quarter of 2016 showing that its safe haven status remains intact. (b) Lower Correlations It is hard to point to exactly why this is the case, but correlations of commodities both to other asset classes as well as the underlying cross-correlation of commodities have increased since 2008. The first trend is shown on the graph below. Prior to 2008, the GSCI Index demonstrated a -0.05 correlation to the SampP 500, but post-2008 this had risen to 0.57. Part of the explanation lies in the unique market environment dominated by quantitative easing and macro risk-on and risk-off moves. Others have pointed to the increased participation of non-specialists, such as global macro investors in commodity markets post-2008. Whatever the reason, there is strong empirical evidence that this is now reversing-perhaps driven by the end of QE in the U. S or the exit of commodity market speculators who have failed to generate performance playing these markets: In the last 12 months the correlation between the SampP 500 and the GSCI Index has fallen to 0.27. Figure 4.16: BCOM Index 12-Month Rolling Correlation to Equity and Credit Markets Source: Bloomberg. 12-month rolling correlation from January 2000 through March 2016. Not surprisingly, this phenomenon of higher correlation has also appeared in an increase in sub-sector correlation within the commodity complex. Risk-off contagion in oil seems to spread to other markets, such as agriculture, despite fundamentally limited near-term impact. Other macro themes, including the timing of rate hikes, U. S. dollar strength, emerging market crises, growth uncertainty surrounding China, U. S. and European GDP growth, and equity market volatility, also converged to drive commodity sub-correlations higher. However, this is also beginning to reverse, as shown below. Figure 4.17: Commodity Cross-Correlations Since 2008 Source: Bloomberg. Analysis comprises sub-commodities included in the Bloomberg Commodities Index. As correlations between commodities and other asset classes, as well as between individual commodities, have broken down, the diversification benefits of holding commodities have returned. Despite some inevitable growth-related common sensitivity of certain commodities, price action should also have a degree of relative independence based on the underlying supply and demand dynamics of any given sub-sector. For example, fundamentals impacting wheat versus copper versus jet oil are relatively unique. With a decline in the dominance of risk-on and risk-off moves, through 2015 we saw the beginnings of a return to the importance of supply and demand fundamentals. Oil declined, driven by oversupply the weather situation dominated agricultural commodities prices, including a year-end rally as El Nio came into play, and metals and bulks were impacted by supply and demand fluctuations in China, but with more forceful impacts in various sub-markets. The divergence theme is likely to continue to play out because we have entered an environment where the supply and demand outlook for individual commodities is more mixed across markets, even within the broader groupings of metals, energy and agriculture. For instance, there are significant divergent supply and demand dynamics across the metals complex, as shown in the heat map below. Metals such as aluminium and copper remain in surplus, while lead and nickel have moved into deficit. The outlook for further supply cuts is also mixed across the base complex, while demand is beginning to diverge. All of this is likely to result in a breakdown of the correlation we have witnessed in recent years, which has seen the space uniformly trade down in a bear market move. This phenomenon is also mirrored across energy and agricultural markets. Figure 4.18: Metals Market Supply and Demand Fundamentals Snapshot Source: Deutsche Bank: Commodities Quarterly, September 29, 2015. In addition to the impact of fundamentals, a combination of idiosyncratic factors such as weather, regulatory changes, geopolitical risk and seasonal factors, as well as structural shifts such as energy switching (coal vs. oil vs. natural gas), the U. S. crude export ban removal, developments in the shipping cycle, infrastructure changes and changes in commodities financing structures should help result in a decline in cross-commodity correlation. (c) Structural Inefficiencies The structural nature of commodity markets continues to evolve, in particular the makeup of market participants. Banks have significantly reduced their operations in commodity markets, driven by regulatory pressures from the Volcker Rule and Dodd-Frank. This has impacted both proprietary trading desks and their physical trading businesses. For example, in 2014, J. P. Morgan sold its physical commodities business to Mercuria while Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse and Barclays have exited commodity trading entirely within the last three years. Those that remain in the space have been impacted further by the fact that market-making desks no longer have the capacity to warehouse risk given increased capital requirements. This has created a gap in the market that commodity hedge funds can exploit. The downside of this trend can be reduced liquidity in certain smaller markets, which favors hedge funds with less assets under management. In the last few years, commodity markets have seen an increase in regulation regarding transparency. This has particularly been the case for the London Metals Exchange. In 2014, the LME started publishing a commitment of traders report highlighting market participants positioning, along with other measures such as its looking to address long load-out queues (i. e. the waiting time to remove stored metal at LME warehouses) in order to improve fair market practices. While these efforts are still in progress, they have led to improvements in assessing issues such as concentration in physical positions by participants. For example, it was recently announced that J. P. Morgan holds more than half the available supply of aluminum, suggesting that the market is not as tight as high-level supply and demand dynamics might suggest. Similarly, the European electricity markets have seen significant legislative changes to stamp out market manipulation by the utilities, which help create a fairer and more favorable environment for hedge funds to trade these markets. Another recent change has been the growth in the CTA industry since 2008, with long-term trend followers now representing a material percentage of open interest in certain commodity markets. This can also act as an opportunity set for hedge fund managers, given the relatively predictable long-term models allowing the flow around position changes to be visible to other market participants. CTA activity can create distortions in commodity markets, particularly around the periods signals switch from buy to sell or vice versa or around roll periods. Again, this development is not entirely without negatives in that it can temporarily distort price moves and necessitate a manager stepping aside temporarily from a given market. A unique distinction between commodity futures and equity and credit markets is the difference in motivations among market participants. Investors in equities are typically seeking profit maximization whereas a large part of commodity futures transactions reflect hedging activity by commodity producers or consumers. This activity is designed to mitigate future price risk and allow clarity over their input/output costs for the year ahead. This means that these market participants can behave in a manner which appears irrational, creating dislocations that can benefit profit-motivated traders such as hedge funds. An example of a market where this is particularly pertinent is electricity and natural gas. Another structural feature can be the levels at where producers have hedged up to one to two years out. This is pertinent particularly in the oil market, where many producing countries hedged oil at around 50 in 2015 and early 2016 as prices fell. For example, Mexico hedged the price of 212 million barrels of oil forward in 2016 at 49. 3 Likewise, as spot prices have subsequently rallied as much as 60 from their lows, U. S. producers have been taking this opportunity to lock in prices in the 40s, seeing volumes trade in the December 2016 and 2017 parts of the WTI curve spike meaningfully. This could act to create a temporary price ceiling, but the supply implications are more broadly reaching in that this fix for the exploration and production companies balance sheets could see future supply through 2016 at higher levels than currently projected. Other likely future developments in commodity markets include the continued rise in the prominence of new exchanges such as Shanghai. This has been driven by the dominance of China in commodity market demand and also in supply as domestic production increases and China switches to net exports in a number of commodities. In our view, this favors managers with onshore trading access (something that is hard to obtain given licensing rules) or with strong relationships in Chinese commodity markets. Plans to implement a Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect in commodity markets are in discussion and could come into effect as early as late 2016. In our view, China is likely to create volatility more broadly in commodity markets over the next 12-18 months. This could include the effect of a continued RMB depreciation and the respective impact on commodities where China is a net importer (e. g. oil products) or a net exporter (e. g. metallurgical coal) as well as the implications for commodities where imports compete heavily versus domestic production, in particular iron ore. Finally, China corruption probes had a meaningful negative impact on power grid spending during 2015 and a consequent impact on base metals. Also, changes to metals-backed financing in China are still being worked through following the Qingdao financing scandal of 2014 4 with changes to rules on the use of metal as collateral likely to have an impact on metals pricing. (d) Potential Recovery The cyclical nature of commodity markets means it is not possible to rely on backward-looking returns to extrapolate the future. While we believe that commodity hedge funds have the ability to generate returns in a range-bound or negative commodity price environment, we would anticipate the potential performance of commodity hedge funds to be particularly compelling in the event of a commodity market recovery. This is suggested in the strong returns generated in the previous 2007-2008 upcycle in which the HFRX Commodity Index posted positive performance of 13.4 and 14.7, respectively. A recovery to previous commodity price highs seems unlikely in the near term given the continued slowdown in China, which will likely weigh on commodity demand despite a pickup elsewhere in global GDP growth. However, with the material price declines in many markets reaching a point where they are close to or below cost product support levels, a partial recovery in these markets would represent meaningful upside from here. For example, a number of market participants are currently calling the bottom of the crude oil market following the precipitous decline since the second half of 2014. While the majority does not believe that prices will retrace to previous highs, many anticipate a return to 60 oil, the level temporarily hit in early 2015, over the course of the next 12-18 months. In particular, if an OPEC production freeze is eventually negotiated, that, alongside rig count declines in the U. S. as shown in Figure 4.19, would act to reduce global supply. Wood Mackenzie estimates that, at the current sub-40 oil price, 2 million barrels per day (b/d) of production are still cash-flow negative. This rises to 2.4 million b/d at an oil price below 35, raising questions about the sustainability of current price levels. Figure 4.19: Rig Count and Oil Price Source: Bloomberg, Baker Hughes. Data through March 31, 2016. In a market environment where supply growth has become excessive, meaningful supply adjustments are required to eventually restore a better balance to the physical markets. These proposed supply cuts, while still arguably not sufficient by themselves, are underway in certain segments of the base metals and energy market. For example, in December, nine of the largest Chinese copper producers agreed to cut output by 10 in the first quarter of 2016 5 while, according to Baker Hughes, the U. S rig count has fallen from a peak of over 1,600 in mid-2014 to 464 in late March. The fact that this process is now underway in energy and metals markets could herald a bottoming as prices in key markets such as oil and copper stabilize. Oil has already rallied materially from lows reached at the beginning of 2016. Gold and silver have also seen strong performance thus far in 2016, as demonstrated in Figure 4.20 (although this also demonstrates the material dispersion in performance this year) and base metals have rallied off their mid-January lows, although much of the sector remains 50-60 off its all-time highs. In the case of a market recovery, it is likely there will be instances where the upward move gets ahead of fundamentals and is instead driven by technicals and flows, which could leave a market vulnerable to reversion-all of which acts to create volatility and trading opportunities. Still, the significant moves already this year show how difficult it can be to time such rallies. Figure 4.20: Snapshot of Q1 2016 Commodities Markets Performance Source: Bloomberg. Year-to-date 2016 performance through March 31, 2016 Proponents of the commodities bull case might also point to potentially higher GDP growth, an end to U. S. dollar strengthening or a pickup in global inflation as factors which would be supportive of commodity price rallies, if they occur. Outside of copper and energy, much of the long-run bull argument for agricultural commodities comes down to demographics and the view that population growth and greater wealth are a catalyst for higher demand for meat proteins, leading to increased grain demand for both livestock as well as human consumption. Finally, a sentiment change from multi-year lows and resultant flows into commodities could also help kick-start market stabilization and recovery. Conclusion We believe that the universe of commodity hedge funds will see renewed interest as investors look to diversify away from passive commodity risk and seek differentiated sources of returns within their hedge fund portfolios. The wide set of trading strategies available should offer multiple sources of opportunity across relative value and directional trading styles, and across mainstream and niche commodities. A period of sustained volatility in commodity markets, more balanced supply and demand dynamics, and a changing regulatory environment may favor those hedge funds with the ability to carry out deep research into industry fundamentals, as well as those showing the ability to comprehend technical factors such as flow and changing market participation. This improving environment, coupled with changing correlation patterns, suggests that a carefully selected portfolio of commodity hedge funds may be a valuable addition to a hedge fund or commodity investment portfolio. 1 uk. reuters/article/uk-hedgefunds-commodities-trends-idUKKCN0WH15N. 2 Our team leverages proprietary peer groups that consist of more than 4,000 hedge funds across 80 distinct sub-strategies and geographies. Our own investment team members (not the fund manager or a third-party data provider) define the strategies of hedge funds to ensure that strategy descriptions accurately reflect each hedge funds activities and that each peer group consists of comparable data. Returns for each fund in the peer groups are housed in PerTrac. Returns are updated both manually by the investment team and on an automated basis through data feeds from PerTrac, Eurekahedge and TASS. 3 Source: Bloomberg, bloomberg/news/articles/2015-08-20/mexico-hedges-2016-oil-exports-at-average-of-49-per-barrel 4 Source: Reuters, reuters/article/us-qingdao-metals-ahome-idUSKBN0JW18620141218. 5 Source: The Wall Street Journal, wsj/articles/chinese-copper-smelters-to-cut-output-by-350-000-tons-in-2016-1448980163. Alpha (Jensens Alpha): A risk-adjusted performance measure that is the excess return of a portfolio over and above that predicted by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), given the portfolios beta and the average market return. Jensens Alpha measures the value added of an active strategy. Barclays Aggregate Bond Index: Represents securities that are U. S. domestic, taxable and dollar-denominated. The Index covers the U. S. investment grade, fixed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities and asset-backed securities. Barclays Capital Global High Yield Index: An unmanaged index considered representative of fixed-rate, non-investment grade debt of companies in the U. S. developed markets and emerging markets. Barclays Capital Long Government Credit Index: Measures the investment return of all medium and larger public issues of U. S. Treasury, agency, investment-grade corporate and investment-grade international dollar-denominated bonds with maturities longer than 10 years. Barclays Capital Pan-European Aggregate Index: The Pan-European Aggregate Index tracks fixed-rate, investment - grade securities issued in the following European currencies: Euro, British pounds, Norwegian krone, Danish krone, Swedish krona, Czech koruna, Hungarian forint, Polish zloty and Slovakian koruna. The principal asset classes in the index are Treasuries, Government-Related, Corporate and Securitized, which include Pfandbriefe, other covered bonds and asset-backed securities. Barclays Capital U. S. MBS Index: Measures the performance of investment-grade fixed-rate mortgage-backed pass - through securities of Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FHLMC) that have 30-, 20-, 15-year and balloon securities that have a remaining maturity of at least one year, are investment grade and have more than 250 million or more of outstanding face value. In addition, the securities must be denominated in U. S. dollars and must be fixed-rate and non-convertible. The Index is market-capitalization weighted, and the securities in the Index are updated on the last calendar day of each month. Barclays CTA Index: Measures the composite performance of established programs. For purposes of this index, an established trading program is a trading program that has four years or more of documented performance history. Once a trading program passes this four-year hurdle, its subsequent performance is included in this unweighted index. The Barclay Index does not represent an actual portfolio, which could be invested in, and therefore the index performance results should be deemed to be hypothetical in nature and of comparative value only. Barclays U. S. Corporate High Yield: An unmanaged index considered representative of fixed-rate, non-investment grade debt of companies in the U. S. Basis Risk: Basis risk refers to the imperfect correlation where offsetting investments in a hedging strategy do not experience price changes in entirely opposite directions from each other. This creates the potential for excess gains or losses in a hedging strategy and adds risk to the position. Beta: A measure of the systematic risk of a portfolio. It is the covariance of the portfolio and the benchmark divided by the variance of the benchmark. Beta measures the historical sensitivity of a portfolios returns to movements in the benchmark. The beta of the benchmark will always be one. A portfolio with a beta above the benchmark (i. e. gt1) means that the portfolio has greater volatility than the benchmark. If the beta of the portfolio is 1.2, a market increase in return of 1 implies a 1.2 increase in the portfolios return. If the beta of the portfolio is 0.8, a market decrease in return of 1 implies a 0.8 decrease in the portfolios return. Bloomberg High Yield Corporate Bond Energy Index: A rules-based, market-value weighted index engineered to measure publicly issued non-investment grade USD fixed-rate, taxable, corporate bonds. Correlation: A statistical measure of how a portfolio moves in relation to its benchmark. Correlation values range from 1.0 to -1.0. A positive correlation implies that they move in the same direction. Negative correlation means they move in opposite paths. A correlation of 1.0 means that the portfolio and benchmark move in exactly the same direction -1.0 means they move in exactly the opposite direction 0.0 means they do not correlate at all with each other. Credit Suisse High Yield Index: Designed to mirror the investable universe of U. S. Dollar-denominated non-investment grade corporate bonds. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index: An index composed of futures contracts on physical commodities, consisting of commodities traded on U. S. exchanges, with the exception of aluminum, nickel and zinc, which trade on the London Metal Exchange. HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index: Includes equally weighted performance indexes, utilized by numerous hedge fund managers as a benchmark for their own hedge funds. The HFRI is broken down into four main strategies, each with multiple sub-strategies. All single-manager HFRI Index constituents are included in the index, which accounts for over 2,200 funds listed on the internal HFR Database. HFRI Macro Index: Tracks a broad range of hedge fund strategies in which the investment process is predicated on movements in underlying economic variables and the impact these have on various types of investments. Macro strategies employ a distinct investment thesis that is predicated on predicted or future movements in the underlying instruments rather than realization of a valuation discrepancy between securities. HFRX Absolute Return Index: This index is designed to be representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe. It is comprised of all eligible hedge fund strategies, including but not limited to convertible arbitrage, distressed securities, equity hedge, equity market neutral, event driven, macro, merger arbitrage and relative value arbitrage. As a component of the optimization process, the index selects constituents which characteristically exhibit lower volatilities and lower correlations to standard directional benchmarks of equity market and hedge fund industry performance. Hedge Fund Research, Inc. (HFR) utilizes a UCITSIII compliant methodology to construct the HFRX Hedge Fund Indices. The methodology is based on defined and predetermined rules and objective criteria to select and rebalance components to maximize representation of the Hedge Fund Universe. HFRX Indices utilize state-of-the-art quantitative techniques and analysis multi-level screening, cluster analysis, Monte-Carlo simulations and optimization techniques ensure that each Index is a pure representation of its corresponding investment focus. HFRX Macro Commodity Index: Includes strategies which invest in commodities on both a discretionary and systematic basis. Systematic commodity managers have investment processes typically as a function of mathematical, algorithmic and technical models, with little or no influence of individuals over the portfolio positioning. Strategies employ an investment process designed to identify opportunities in markets exhibiting trending or momentum characteristics across commodity assets classes, frequently with related ancillary exposure in commodity sensitive equities or other derivative instruments. Discretionary commodity strategies are reliant on the fundamental evaluation of market data, relationships and influences as they pertain primarily to commodity markets including positions in energy, agricultural, resources or metal assets. Portfolio positions typically are predicated on the evolution of investment themes the managers expect to materialize over a relevant timeframe, which in many cases contain contrarian or volatility focused components. HFRX Macro Systematic Diversified CTA Index: Has investment processes typically as function of mathematical, algorithmic and technical models, with little or no influence of individuals over the portfolio positioning. Strategies which employ an investment process designed to identify opportunities in markets exhibiting trending or momentum characteristics across individual instruments or asset classes. Strategies typically employ quantitative process which focus on statistically robust or technical patterns in the return series of the asset, and typically focus on highly liquid instruments and maintain shorter holding periods than either discretionary or mean reverting strategies. Although some strategies seek to employ counter trend models, strategies benefit most from an environment characterized by persistent, discernible trending behavior. Systematic Diversified strategies typically would expect to have no greater than 35 of portfolio in either dedicated currency or commodity exposures over a given market cycle. Information ratio: A measure of risk-adjusted return. The average excess return (over an appropriate benchmark or risk-free rate) is divided by the standard deviation of these excess returns. The higher the measure, the higher the risk-adjusted return. The Information Ratio of the benchmark will equal zero. J. P. Morgan High Yield Index: Designed to mirror the investable universe of the U. S. dollar global high yield corporate debt market, including domestic and international issues. Loan-to-value ratio (LTV): A lending risk assessment ratio that financial institutions and other lenders examine prior to approving a mortgage. Typically, assessments with high LTV ratios are generally seen as higher risk and, therefore, if the mortgage is accepted, the loan will generally cost the borrower more. Russell 2000 Index: Measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8 of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the weighted average market capitalization was approximately 732 million the median market capitalization was approximately 306 million. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of 1.7 billion and the smallest of 78 million. SampP 500 Index: Consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value-weighted index (stock price times number of shares outstanding), with each stocks weight in the Index proportionate to its market value. The 500 is one of the most widely used benchmarks of U. S. equity performance. As of September 16, 2005, SampP switched to a float-adjusted format, which weights only those shares that are available to investors, not all of a companys outstanding shares. The value of the index now reflects the value available in the public markets. SampP GSCI Index: Formerly known as the SampP Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, the SampP GSCI Index serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time. It is a tradable index that is readily available to market participants of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The index was originally developed by Goldman Sachs. In 2007, ownership transferred to Standard amp Poors, who currently own and publish it. Futures of the SampP GSCI use a multiple of 250. The index contains a much higher exposure to energy than other commodity price indices such as the Bloomberg Commodity Index. U. S. Dollar Index: Measures the performance of the U. S. Dollar against a basket of currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK. It includes nine chart types, one up to 1,000 periods and a vast range of customizable technical indicators. While hedge funds offer you the potential for attractive returns and diversification for your portfolio, they also pose greater risks than more traditional investments. There is no guarantee that any fund will meet its investment objective. An investment in hedge funds is only intended for sophisticated investors. Investors may lose all or a substantial portion of their investment. You should consider the risks inherent with investing in hedge funds: Leveraged and Speculative Investments-An investment in hedge funds is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. Hedge funds commonly engage in swaps, futures, forwards, options and other derivative transactions that can result in volatile fund performance. Leveraging may increase risk in hedge funds. Limited Liquidity-There are limited channels in the secondary market through which investors can attempt to sell and/ or purchase interests in hedge funds and an investors ability to transact business in the secondary market is subject to restrictions on transferring interest in hedge funds. Hedge funds may suspend or limit the right of redemption under certain circumstances. Thus, an investment in hedge funds should be regarded as illiquid. Absence of Regulatory Oversight-Hedge funds are not required to be registered under the U. S. Investment Company Act of 1940 therefore hedge funds are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. Dependence upon Investment Manager-The General Partner or manager of a hedge fund normally has total trading authority over its respective fund. The use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean the lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. Foreign Exchanges-Selective hedge funds may execute a portion of their trades on foreign exchanges. Material economic conditions and/or events involving those exchanges may affect future results. Fees and Expenses-Hedge funds often charge high fees such fees and expenses may offset trading profits. Fees on funds of funds are in addition to the fees of underlying funds, resulting in two layers of fees. Performance or incentive fees may incentivize the manager of those funds to make riskier investments. Complex Tax Structures-Hedge funds may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information. Limited Reporting-While hedge funds generally may provide periodic performance reports and annual audited financial statements, they are not otherwise required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors. Business and Regulatory Risks of Hedge Funds-Legal, tax and regulatory changes could occur during the term of a hedge fund that may adversely affect the fund or its managers. In addition to these risk considerations, specific risks will apply to each hedge fund based on its particular investment strategy. Any investment decision with respect to an investment in a hedge fund or a private equity fund of funds should be made based upon the information contained in the Confidential Private Placement Memorandum of that fund. Hedge Fund Data and Analyses-The hedge fund data contained in this material is based upon internal analyses of information obtained from public and third-party sources. Any returns shown were constructed for illustrative purposes only. There are numerous limitations inherent in the data presented, including incompleteness and unavailability of hedge fund holdings, activity and performance data (i. e. unavailability of short activity and intraquarter activity), and the reliance upon assumptions. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy of the information shown, the reasonableness of the assumptions used, or that all assumptions and limitations inherent in such analysis have been fully stated or considered. Changes in assumptions may have a material impact on the data and the results presented. The simulated, estimated and expected returns and characteristics constructed for any hedge fund strategies are shown for illustrative purposes only, and actual returns and characteristics of any fund or group of funds may differ significantly from any simulated, estimated and expected returns shown. All return data is shown net of fees and other expenses and reflect reinvestment of any dividend and distributions. This material is provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Information is obtained from sources deemed reliable, but there is no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or reliability. All information is current as of the date of this material and is subject to change without notice. Cualquier opinión o opinión expresada puede no reflejar las de la empresa como un todo. Neuberger Berman products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all client types. This material may include estimates, outlooks, projections and other forward-looking statements. Due to a variety of factors, actual events may differ significantly from those presented. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Investments in hedge funds and private equity are speculative and involve a higher degree of risk than more traditional investments. Investments in hedge funds and private equity are intended for sophisticated investors only. Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. El rendimiento pasado no es garantía de resultados futuros. All information as of the date indicated, except as otherwise noted. Firm data, including employee and assets under management figures, reflect collective data for the various affiliated investment advisers that are subsidiaries of Neuberger Berman Group LLC. This material is being issued on a limited basis through various global subsidiaries and affiliates of Neuberger Berman Group LLC. Please visit nb/disclosure-global-communications for the specific entities and jurisdictional limitations and restrictions. The Neuberger Berman name and logo are registered service marks of Neuberger Berman Group LLC. Lea el artículo completo
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